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Cover of Oilseeds Focus Vol 3 No 4 December 2017
STATISTICS AND ESTIMATES CROP ESTIMATES 2017 SEASON 10 February 2017
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 19 DECEMBER 2017 28 NOVEMBER 2017 26 OCTOBER 2017 28 SEPTEMBER 2017 29 AUGUST 2017 26 JULY 2017 28 JUNE 2017 26 MAY 2017 12 MAY 2017 25 APRIL 2017 28 MARCH 2017 28 FEBRUARY 2017 10 FEBRUARY 2017 26 JANUARY 2017
Crop Estimates Committee / Oesskattingskomitee logo
SYFERS DEUR DIE OESSKATTINGSKOMITEE VERSKAF.
ESTIMATES COURTECY OF THE CROP ESTIMATES COMMITTEE.
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At a meeting held on 10 February 2017, the Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) oversaw the process for the finalisation of the crop production figures of commercial white and yellow maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts and sorghum for 2016.

The estimated total production figures as released by the national Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) were revised, using the published figures of the South Africa Grain Information Services (SAGIS) of actual deliveries as the basis for the calculations. The figures from the maize utilisation survey to determine on-farm usage and retentions, which was conducted by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) and the telephonic survey conducted by the National Crop Statistics Consortium (NCSC), were added to the SAGIS delivery figures to calculate the final crop production figures.

Comparing the final calculated crop figures with the numbers set by the CEC during September 2016, the size of the commercial maize crop is now 7,778 million tons, which is 3,21% or 241 625 tons more than the final crop estimate figure of 7,537 million tons. For white maize, the recalculated crop size is 3,408 million tons, which is 4,76% or 154 725 tons higher than the final crop estimate figure, and for yellow maize the recalculated crop size is 4,370 million tons, which is 2,03% or 86 900 tons more than the final crop estimate figure.

In the case of commercial sunflower seed, the final calculated crop figure remained unchanged at 755 000 tons. Sorghum and groundnuts were adjusted downward by 4,92% (or 3 650 tons) and 6,21% (or 1 170 tons), respectively. The soybeans crop was slightly adjusted upward, from 741 550 tons to 742 000 tons, which is 0,06% or 450 tons.

CELC accepted the final recalculated crop production figures for 2016 (please refer to the figures in the accompanying tables).

The CEC would like to thank all producers and industry role-players who provided information on a regular basis to improve the accuracy of the crop estimates. Producers, who do not participate in the Department's monthly survey, are requested as a matter of urgency to make an effort to contribute to the crop estimates process.

SUMMARY

FINAL AREA PLANTED AND CROP PRODUCTION FIGURES OF COMMERCIAL SUMMER CROPS FOR 2016
CROP FINAL AREA PLANTED FINAL CROP CEC AREA PLANTED CEC FINAL ESTIMATE ¹ FINAL CROP
vs
FINAL ESTIMATE
2016 2016 SEPTEMBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2016
HA TONS HA TONS %
(A) (B) (C) (D) (B) ÷ (D)
  White maize 1 014 750 3 408 500 1 014 750 3 253 775 +4.76
  Yellow maize 932 000 4 370 000 932 000 4 283 100 +2.03
Total maize 1 946 750 7 778 500 1 946 750 7 536 875 +3.21
Sunflower seed 718 500 755 000 718 500 755 000
Soybeans 502 800 742 000 502 800 741 550 +0.06
Groundnuts 22 600 17 680 22 600 18 850 -6.21
Sorghum 48 500 70 500 48 500 74 150 -4.92
¹  As estimated by the CEC on 27 September 2016

COMMERCIAL

MAIZE AND SORGHUM
CROP TOTAL PRODUCER
DELIVERIES REPORTED
BY SAGIS ²
PROJECTED DELIVERIES ³ ON-FARM FOR
OWN USE
MAR-DEC 2016 JAN-FEB 2017
TONS TONS TONS TONS
  White Maize 3 408 500 3 250 676 96 314 286 664
  Yellow maize 4 370 000 3 987 022 96 314 286 664
Total maize 7 778 500 7 237 698 213 086 327 716
Sorghum 70 500 66 213 1 787 2 500

COMMERCIAL

SUNFLOWER SEED, SOYBEANS AND GROUNDNUTS
CROP TOTAL PRODUCER
DELIVERIES REPORTED
BY SAGIS ²
PROJECTED DELIVERIES ³ ON-FARM FOR
OWN USE / DIRECT SALES ETC
MAR-DEC 2016 JAN-FEB 2017
TONS TONS TONS TONS
Sunflower seed 755 000 751 705 3 295 0
Soybeans 742 000 704 286 5 714 32 000
Groundnuts 17 680 17 177 0 503
 
²  SAGIS producer deliveries relates to the current crop. However, please take note that early deliveries of maize (82 997 tons), which occurred during January and February 2016, are included in the 2016-seasons' estimate of 7,778 million tons.
 
³  Projected deliveries for maize are based on the weekly producer deliveries (31 December 2016 to 3 February 2017), as recorded by SAGIS and for sorghum, sunflower seed, soybeans and groundnuts on the historic trend of producer deliveries, as recorded by SAGIS
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