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Cover of Oilseeds Focus Vol 4 No 4 December 2018
STATISTICS AND ESTIMATES CROP ESTIMATES 2018 SEASON 10 May 2018
PLEASE CLICK ON THE LINKS BELOW TO VIEW INDIVIDUAL FILES
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Crop Estimates Committee / Oesskattingskomitee logo
SYFERS DEUR DIE OESSKATTINGSKOMITEE VERSKAF.
ESTIMATES COURTECY OF THE CROP ESTIMATES COMMITTEE.
Index / Indeks

At a meeting held on 10 May 2018, the Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) oversaw the process for the finalisation of the crop production figures of commercial wheat, malting barley and canola for 2017.

The estimated total production figures as released by the national Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) were revised, using the published figures of the South Africa Grain Information Services (SAGIS) of actual deliveries as the basis for the calculations. The figures from the wheat utilisation survey to determine on-farm usage and retentions, which was conducted by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF), were added to the SAGIS delivery figures to calculate the final crop production figures.

Comparing the final calculated crop figures with the numbers set by the CEC during February 2018, the size of the commercial wheat crop is now 1 535 000 tons, which is 10 250 tons or 0,67% more than the final crop estimate figure of 1 524 750 tons. For malting barley the recalculated crop size is 307 000 tons, which is 64 tons or 0,02% less than the final crop estimate figure of 307 064 tons. The final recalculated canola crop estimate figure is 93 500 tons, which is slightly higher (32 tons or 0,03%) than the final crop estimate figure of 93 468 tons.

CELC accepted the final recalculated crop production figures for 2017 (please refer to the figures in the accompanying tables).

The CEC would like to thank all producers and industry role-players who provided information on a regular basis to improve the accuracy of the crop estimates. Producers, who do not participate in the Department's monthly survey, are requested as a matter of urgency to make an effort to contribute to the crop estimates process.

FINAL AREA PLANTED AND CROP FIGURES OF WINTER CEREALS

2017 PRODUCTION SEASON
CROP FINAL AREA PLANTED FINAL CROP CEC AREA PLANTED CEC FINAL ESTIMATE FINAL CROP vs FINAL ESTIMATE
HA TONS HA TONS %
(A) (B) (C) (D) (B) ÷ (D)
Wheat 491 600 1 535 000 491 600 1 524 750 +0.67
Malting barley 91 380 307 000 91 380 307 064 -0.02
Canola 84 000 93 500 84 000 93 468 +0.03

¹ As estimated by the CEC on 27 February 2018.

THE CALCULATION OF THE FINAL WINTER CEREAL CROPS

FOR THE 2017 PRODUCTION SEASON IS AS FOLLOWS
CROP FINAL CROP PRODUCER DELIVERIES REPORTED BY SAGIS ¹ ESTIMATED
FUTURE
DELIVERIES
RETENTIONS ON FARMS FOR OWN USE
OCTOBER 2017 TO MARCH 2018 APRIL TO SEPTEMBER 2018
TONS
Wheat 1 535 000 1 477 448 27 552 30 000²
Malting barley 307 000 304 397 1 103 1 500
Canola 93 500 92 674 726 100

¹ SAGIS deliveries relate to the current crop.
² Based on a survey undertaken by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

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