Final area planted and crop production figures of winter cereals for the 2019 production season
At a meeting held on 7 May 2020, the Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) oversaw the process for the finalisation of the crop production figures of commercial wheat, malting barley, canola and cereal oats for 2019.
The estimated total production figures as released by the national Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) were revised, using the published figures of the South Africa Grain Information Services (SAGIS) of actual deliveries as the basis for the calculations. The figures from the wheat utilisation survey to determine on-farm usage and retentions, which was conducted by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD), were added to the SAGIS delivery figures to calculate the final crop production figures.
Comparing the final calculated crop figures with the numbers set by the CEC during February 2020, the size of the commercial wheat crop is now 1 535 000 tons, which is 33 325 tons or 2,22% more than the final crop estimate figure of 1 501 675 tons. For malting barley the recalculated crop size is 345 000 tons, which is 80 tons or 0,02% less than the final crop estimate figure of 345 080 tons. The final recalculated canola crop estimate figure is 95 000 tons, which is slightly lower (1 200 tons or 1,25%) than the final crop estimate figure of 96 200 tons. The final recalculated cereal oats crop estimate figure is 16 500 tons, which is 960 tons or 6,18% higher than the final crop estimate figure of 15 540 tons.
CELC accepted the final recalculated crop production figures for 2019 (please refer to the figures in the accompanying tables).
The CEC would like to thank all producers and industry role-players who provided information on a regular basis to improve the accuracy of the crop estimates. Producers, who do not participate in the Department's monthly survey, are requested as a matter of urgency to make an effort to contribute to the crop estimates process.
|Crop||Final area planted||Final crop||CEC area planted¹||CEC final estimate¹||Final crop vs Final estimate|
|(A)||(B)||(C)||(D)||(B) ÷ (D)|
|Wheat||540 000||1 535 000||540 000||1 501 675||+2.22|
|Malting barley||131 960||345 000||131 960||345 080||-0.02|
|Canola||74 000||95 000||74 000||96 200||-1.25|
|Cereal oats||21 000||16 500||21 000||15 540||+6.18|
¹ As estimated by the CEC on 26 February 2020.
|Crop||Final crop||Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS¹||Estimated future deliveries||Retentions on farms for own use/seed|
|(Oct 2019 - March 2020)||(April - September 2020)|
|Wheat||1 535 000||1 457 436||45 564||32 000³|
|Malting barley||345 000||342 968²||932||1 100|
|Canola||95 000||94 784²||116||100|
|Cereal oats||16 500||15 349||1 151||0|
¹ SAGIS producer deliveries relate to the current crop.
² Early deliveries that took place during September 2019, were added to the malting barley (29 935 tons) and canola (7 706 tons) crops for the 2019 marketing season.
³ Based on a survey undertaken by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis of the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development.